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Initially, the former US president appeared to adopt a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "serious consequences" during the summer in case Putin carried on blocking truce discussions, he eventually enacted considerable restrictions on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly impacted Putin's capability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukrainian or European involvement, he has seemingly reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's initiative would effectively benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the plan actually undermine that same sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business background, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a simple land disagreement, as if giving Russia a section of Ukrainian territory will appease the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not simply about occupying a destroyed region of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that his growing autocracy withholds them.

Border Surrenders

Although maintaining in status the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the plan would force the nation to give up the whole Donetsk province. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been failed to capture in over a decade of warfare, this surrender would make Ukrainian military defenses dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that constitute a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, leaving Putin a open way to Kyiv if he later opt to restart the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would make future fighting easier for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to reduce the scale of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's plan places no similar constraints on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's attempts to depict the nation's legitimate leadership as Nazis, the plan declares: "All radical ideology and practices must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to emphasize this element, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative makes Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has breached similar accords in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a handback of occupied land in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone trust Putin this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western protection assurances. While the initiative threatens a "strong unified military response" if Russia restart its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the specifics include unclear to troubling. The proposal would not only deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the reassurance force, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Putin from replenishing his weakened forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

An additional parallel deal reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "significant, intentional, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. However unlike a capable national defense – the nation's best defense against additional hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, including the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not