Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
