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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

Yet the latest field is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still